Thread regarding SAS Institute layoffs

When I’d interact with customers, they’d be on a product version from 5 years past. They were not upgrading. They’d use the meetings to vent about problems that weren’t being acknowledged and addressed.

@tk I’ve been retired for more than 4 years now and in-person customer encounters halted in March 2020, so my memory of the details isn’t the greatest. As I recall, very few of the visits had anything to do with Viya. My main opportunity to gauge reaction to Viya was at SGF (using the forbidden acronym!). There, I’d say the most favorable reaction I saw was mild, polite interest. I don’t pretend my encounters amount to anything close to a representative sample of the user base.

"Based only on the observed age of SAS9 users at conferences I worked and in around 25 years of customer visits"

At those conferences and customer visits, what was the tenor concerning Viya?

A giveaway is the lack of jobs that list SAS as a skill needed. There are very few, and the ones that do are in niche areas.

@t0 Based only on the observed age of SAS9 users at conferences I worked and in around 25 years of customer visits I did in my time at SAS, I’d say the retirement cliff for SAS9 revenues might be closer than you anticipate. No hard data, just my impression. For the sake of my friends still at SAS, I hope I’m way off.

@mj I could believe that Viya is bringing in $200-300M, but that’s about it. How likely is it that total revenues are perfectly flat, that SAS9’s decline and Viya’s growth so neatly balance each other? The most likely explanation is that both numbers are small, mere rounding errors on the magic $3B.

SAS9 is locked in to the pharmaceutical industry, because of FDA regulations. It is strong in the financial industry, which is conservative and slow to change. At some point, these industries will embrace Open Source, and SAS9 revenues will fall off a cliff, but probably not soon.

Another cliff is that SAS users skew older, while younger folks prefer R or Python. At some point, the old SAS users will retire, and their management will seize the opportunity to cut costs by dumping SAS. That’s another cliff that will happen someday, but probably not soon.

I think we’re just seeing a long slow process, in which SAS9 is not declining fast, and Viya is not growing fast. Most likely, the change in both numbers is small. Total revenues are not keeping up with inflation, while expenses are increasing, which requires staff reductions. But doom is not imminent.

SAS has time to build innovative products and grow again. The question is whether they can innovate.

@mv “ a lot of Viya sales are not real. Ask anyone at that company who uses Viya and they won't know what you're talking about”

So instead go by anonymous people online? Smart.

Ask anyone at what company?
ANYONE!

@mj a lot of Viya sales are not real. Ask anyone at that company who uses Viya and they won't know what you're talking about. #salesgames

"This suggests that Viya is not generating much revenue at all: certainly not $1B, but something closer to $100M."

Probably more. My guess is that V9 revenue is shrinking faster and faster as more customers stop renewing. Didn't management even admit that churn of V9 customers was becoming concerning?

@j4
same. hope they find new niche solutions.

A couple of points about this data series:

SAS revenues were flat for 5 years before Viya was introduced in 2016. They’ve remained flat for 10 years afterwards.

This suggests that Viya is not generating much revenue at all: certainly not $1B, but something closer to $100M.

Over the past 10 years, flat revenues are equivalent to a decline of ~20% against inflation — therefore, against expenses. Over that same period, by no coincidence, SAS headcount also declined ~20%.

This suggests that, if revenues remain flat, and expenses increase another ~X%, SAS headcount will decline another ~X%.

That is what I expect. I’m not in the Viya haters club; I’d like it to succeed. I just have no reason to expect change. I expect continued flat revenues, therefore continued headcount reduction.

@fr There are plenty of sources around the web, but they all rely on the original source, the company itself. As a private company, SAS is not required to use GAAP, but the numbers they provide are indeed flat.

• 2011: $2.7B

• 2012: $2.9B

• 2013: $3.0B

• 2014: $3.1B

• 2015: $3.2B

• 2016: $3.2B

• 2017: $3.2B

• 2018: $3.3B

• 2019: $3.1B

• 2020: $3.0B

• 2021: $3.2B

• 2022: >$3B

• 2023: >$3B

• 2024: >$3B

No, but really, how long?

How long has revenue been flat?

SAS has been flat for ~15 years, and headcount has been reduced ~20%. This is cause and effect.

“We should at least be decent to one another as we shift the deck chairs around…”



Well and truly said.

SAS has been flat for the past 15 years because customer embracement of Viya has been scarce.

We(internally) can debate that all we want. The Viya debate has been debated ad nauseum. The only thing that matters is what excites the customer and meets their needs.

If you do not take care of your customers someone else will. Old saying but still remains true.