UBS economists argue layoffs are happening at normal or elevated rates, not unusually low as often described.
Hiring has slowed while layoffs have risen, with unemployment claims at a 4-year high and August layoff announcements up 13% year over year.
If hiring slows further while layoffs continue at current levels, the labor market could contract and raise recession risks.
Official BLS data still shows layoffs near historic lows, but UBS economist Jonathan Pingle said it is not reliable for real-time tracking.
Many economists blame the government's tariff policies for weakening the job market, raising costs, fueling uncertainty, and reducing spending.
Source:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/layoffs-might-worse-economists-140455255.html