North Dakota’s economy in mid-2025 is both strong and volatile.
Unemployment is very low. The jobless rate was 2.6 percent from January through April. That’s among the lowest in the nation and well below the national average of 4.2 percent. Jobs are available, and workers are in demand.
But layoffs are rising. North Dakota had the highest layoff and discharge rate in the country in January. The rate was 1.6 percent. That equals about 7,000 people laid off or discharged in one month. It’s 40 percent more than the same time last year.
This suggests high churn. Jobs are available, but workers are moving often or being let go due to restructuring or short-term shifts.
The energy sector is a key part of North Dakota’s economy. Oil and gas activity drives much of the state’s employment and revenue. However, national energy policies are shifting. Federal tariffs and executive orders have affected clean energy projects. By March 2025, more than 60,000 clean energy jobs nationwide had been lost, delayed, or threatened.
Many large projects have been canceled or scaled back. While North Dakota hasn’t seen specific oil and gas WARN notices between May and July, long-term impacts could still emerge. If investment drops, oil and gas jobs may be at risk.
In agriculture, income is booming—but only for now. Net farm income is projected to rise 39 percent in 2025. It will reach 4.79 billion dollars, the highest since 2021. But most of this increase comes from government aid. Direct payments are expected to total 3.0 billion dollars.
Market conditions are weaker than they appear. Crop cash receipts are falling. Canola is down 30 percent, wheat is down 12 percent, and soybeans are down 8 percent. Livestock income is up 5 percent, thanks to strong cattle prices. Expenses remain high and steady at 10.7 billion dollars.
Experts warn the boost is temporary. By 2026, net farm income is expected to fall 48 percent as aid returns to normal. Farm jobs could be at risk when that happens.
Other sector trends:
- Nonfarm employment totaled 450,200 in April 2025.
- Over the past year, total nonfarm jobs increased 1.0 percent.
- Manufacturing employment fell 1.8 percent.
- Mining and logging fell 2.2 percent.
- Construction declined 1.0 percent.
- Education and health services grew 3.9 percent.
- Government jobs rose 2.2 percent.
As of mid-2025, no major WARN notices have been reported for North Dakota. This may mean layoffs are smaller in scale or not subject to federal reporting thresholds. The state requires notice for mass separations of 25 or more, but not all are published widely.
North Dakota has one of the tightest labor markets in the country but also the highest layoff rate. The economy is active, but unstable. Energy and agriculture face long-term risks. Many job gains are short-term or policy-driven. As federal supports fade and industry adjustments continue, workforce churn is likely to remain high.