I understand those who want to be cut, but I would prefer to leave voluntarily at the moment that is best for me. I wonder how much real influence managers have on the decision whether someone will be cut or not?
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From past experiences, no one below VPs will know / be able to influence.
Most managers will be told a number that has to be met, be it dollar or headcount. Sometimes it's up to the manager to select the cuts, other times a manager is allowed instead to provide a list of 'key' employees who should be retained if at all possible. But with the exception of very large teams of truly interchangeable people all doing the same thing at more or less the same rate... the manager usually does have some influence, yes.
Next to zero direct influence. Performance, compensation, role, time in a role and what part the organization you’re in are all that will be looked at.