I know pretty much everyone is hoping for a turnaround in 2021, but let me tell you why that's an impossibility.
Currently, there are literally millions of tenants, retail, residential, office, who are seriously delinquent on their rents, and are only still occupying their space due to the moratorium on evictions, or simply refusing to leave.
This is causing immense strain on landlords, and in turn their lenders, who simply aren't getting paid, and haven't been paid for months. Debts need to be serviced, otherwise the cascading effects of lost revenues ripple through the entire economy.
People who THINK they aren't exposed to this crisis, in fact are. People like bondholders, people like shareholders, people collecting a dividend, are prime examples of those who are blissfully unaware of how exposed they are to the debt insolvency crisis which is about to explode.
Debt is fuel for this economy, or more accurately, debt servicing, which provides a comfortable living for millions of Americans who right now think the covid crisis is beneath them. They are in for a rude awakening very soon.
The immense stress currently shouldered by small businesses, restaurants, landlords, cannot be carried much longer and will be passed on to their stakeholders, like banks, lenders, who will be saddled with millions of money-losing assets which the former owner can no longer carry.
But unlike the former owners, lenders have no appetite to sit on a money sink, and will sell them off for whatever they can get to recoup at least some of their losses. And once this begins, a tidal wave of selling will be unleashed, homes, businesses, retail and commercial properties, assets which are dramatically overvalued in the current environment will find their true market value in this selloff, which will be 50%++ lower than what the current owners think they're worth.
Selling begets more selling as fear replaces greed and everyone tries to rush out the same door at once, which very few will manage to do.
Large retailers like Macy's, Penney's, and more will finally throw in the towel and close thousands of stores, cumulatively, greatly increasing the financial strain on already insolvent mall operators, who will be forced to sell or shut down entire malls nationwide. This isn't theory, it's math, mall owners have been losing money since even before covid when retailers were closing at a historic rate. Covid only intensified that trend.
So, 2021 will be the year the current bagholders, who are draining their own reserves and savings to maintain the facade, will finally capitulate. Economists widely agree that if even 10% of businesses in an economy fail, the ripple effects are ample to bring down most of the rest of the economy, as we have a very interconnected financial system.
It's unfortunate that most Americans dont know the first thing about economics or how our financial system REALLY works, and thus will be completely blindsided by this. Their source of info is the evening news, which will only explain these events AFTER they already happened and the damage is done, they will never warn or prepare the masses, since the media is owned by corporations, thus the term "Corporate Media" is entirely accurate.
Corporations have insider knowledge of the economy and what's coming, good, bad, where, when, how. The average Joe thinks he knows as much as everyone, including multi-billionaires who could tell you detailed info about what's coming to the economy 5 yrs from now, nvm 6 months.
Why? because they're the investors, the movers who make it happen that's why, and sometimes they have to fleece the sheep to save their own necks, and when that time is nigh, as it is now, it wouldn't serve their purposes to warn the sheep in advance now would it?
No, but gullible, uninformed Americans just assume rainbows and unicorns forever, and should a rainy day arrive, they are supremely confident it will pass in a jiffy and blue skies will return. Well, those people are about to discover that their world view could not be more incorrect, as 2021 will reward those who inform themselves, about how our financial system REALLY works, and what the current state is.
Hint: It's nothing like what those pretty blondes on the evening news will tell you. If you want real info, you'll have to work for it, nobody hands that out to lazy, sloppy masses for free.