So many people are waiting for the things to pick up once again and while I believe we will see at least a few more cycles, the time of O&G is nearing its end. It's only a matter of time before a slump becomes our permanent state. And something tells me that's going to happen much sooner than many expect.
My point: if you are looking for a new job, try to find it in another sector completely. We are done.
Predicting death of the O&G industry is greatly exaggerated. Increasing renewables, yes of course. But look around you. 99% of everything you see and use contains petroleum products, and all of it required petroleum based products for manufacturing, transport, installation, etc. Majority of clothes, shoes, furniture, vehicles, computers, appliances and on and on would not exist as we know them today without petroleum.
Just powering electric batteries on the scale needed to get to zero HC emissions is totally unrealistic. Without a technology breakthrough on a scale never imagined, hydro and wind can never provide electric supply needed for such a mass transformation.
Yes, O&G is in for a long hard ride, and may never see another boom. But as it shrinks, petroleum demand and prices will increase. Overseas countries can't provide excess supply forever, and low prices are hurting them more, making the social programs that underpin their societies and keep the peace unsustainable.
Oil, gas, coal, nuclear will always be essential. Always.
We are beyond the cycles of the past. This downturn has been in place since 2014. Any increase in demand is now immediately filled and exceeded by the frackers and there is nothing anyone can do about it. OPEC production cuts are offset by the frackers. This is a “lower forever”business now.
At Chevron, our leadership told us a couple of years ago that we were preparing for oil prices to be "lower for longer". They have now modified that to "lower forever".
Just out of curiosity, what other industries are people looking toward to change careers?
Google oil adjusted oil price and you can see the natural price cycle and the 1980s and more recent price peaks. The peak is followed by a long period of lower prices and belt tightening. Remember “Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it”
The concern with this cycle is the lack of demand growth to fuel the recovery.
Oil is a commodity so it has always been, and will always be, very volatile. As for the other stuff... who knows? And anyone who tries to tell you they know the future of O&G is just blowing smoke regardless of how smart they try to sounds. The massive electrical grid, internal combustion engine passenger vehicles, commercial airlines, the internet, all of these things are 'relatively' very new and just consider the massive shifts they have caused on the global society. Do you think this type of innovation and fundamental change is done for humanity? I doubt it. Will there be meaningful change in the next 20, 50, 100 years, who knows? For all we know our world will be revolutionized yet again the next 10 years, or maybe it won't. Just don't let your skills and interests get stale, or become dogmatic in your beliefs and you'll be fine. Everything will change regardless of what you choose to do at any given time.