I know the people who are stewarding this layoff are reading these comments. Just tell us how many volunteers have been approved and how many involuntary are going to be notified. Don’t be scared this is a safe place.
30 replies (most recent on top)
Our vp today (GP - DPD) said he wouldn’t tell us specific numbers because “it’s constantly moving”.... okay jackwad. The deadline is tomorrow. Give us a hint.
A psychologist? Life coach? Therapist? Dating site moderator? Wannabe? And it's free!
Millennials: Truth, squirm, deny, squirm, analyze, squirm, realization, squirm, attack, squirm, rationalize, squirm.
Repeat cycle.
So fun to watch. "Cool"
The level of anger you and the OP have against younger generations suggests that your life hasn’t worked out the way you wanted it to. It suggests that you’re not respected the way you think you should be in not just your professional life, but also your personal life, and just in general. I really don’t think anyone should take life advice from someone who’s clearly fallen so short of his own expectations.
@4yyo+17XH43Lo - tl;dr
A lot more words.
A lot more self-congratulation.
Cool.
Son, the last thing any of us old codgers need is career or life affirmation from you. It makes me laugh that you believe that we would seek your approval or respect. Those days are long gone and we know it. We made and left our mark, and earned our money. Op was not bragging nor looking for anything back from you, just trying to teach you a life lesson, but you are too smart for that.
In our early days, most of us thought the old timers were tough, stern but a blast to hang around once we knew our place, and had forgotten more than we would ever learn. Turns out we were wise beyond our years.
But, as you have so aptly demonstrated, valuing experience and the wisdom of age is a thing of the past. You young folks know it all and choose to ridicule anything to the contrary. My generation grew out of this illusion of "knowing it all" about 2-3 years into our careers, but this seems a lifelong affliction for the new generation.
But, please please don't delude yourself into believing that we somehow need your appreciation of affirmation. You are way way overestimating your importance in the oil patch and in this tough old world. We made it to the finish line already, and you can't imagine what yet lies ahead for you. We could tell you and help with some of it, but you wouldn't listen anyways. And that's fine by us. Best of luck to you.
The truth that the Boomer OP is whiny while patting himself on the back? Yeah, devastating.
Ouch, the truth hurts huh?
You assume that the people whining on here are younger, and specifically millennials, with no proof. You also incessantly indirectly congratulate yourself. So, cool.
I won't be a racist or bigot by commenting as you have on the color of someone's skin, but as to the "old men", who do you think carried the company through numerous and tumultuous hard times over the past 3-4 decades?
And you seldom heard any whining, no cries to dethrone management, no blaming of others, no call for a revolution against shareholders, no one cowering in their panic ridden offices, no one forecasting doom, etc.
You just saw folks come to work every day and tough it out, doing whatever they could to improve the company's bottom line and address whatever problems were the highest priority. And then come back the next day and so on, looking forward to the day when they could hand everything over to the next generation of workers.
Some got laid off, some quit, some got promoted, some were left to wither on the vine in a go nowhere job assignment. Some liked it, others didn't. But everyone pretty much kept working their tails off, day in and day out.
But take a good hard look at their work ethic, their honesty, the respect they extend to others, their can do attitude, their wealth of knowledge and experience. Take a close hard look, because you won't find much of that in the people you surround yourself with, either at EM or elsewhere. We can tell because of your attitude towards them, and probably towards anyone else that don't fit neatly into your tiny box of perfection and righteousness that surrounds you.
Not much these old guys and girls haven't seen. I guess you can call them Bubbas if you want, it won't bother them, just as your crass opinion of them won't either.
If you left, fine, good luck. But try having just a bit of class in life.
@1itz.
So you have 2000 RE out of 74000 employees, how is that “dominated by white old men”?
There is more to a retirement decision than just age. If you have received any executive/incentive compensation, EM reserves the right to cancel any outstanding amount (second half of money under 7 year payout rule) if you retire and take employment elsewhere. The new job doesn't have to be a competitive threat. Any job, in any industry, and whatever exec comp you earned but have not received is gone.
Believe me, EM routinely exercises this option, whether you retire on good terms or essentially get shown the door by a low ranking. So essentially, when you retire from EM, that is it. You cannot work anywhere else if you want to hang onto your exec comp.
There are other complications/considerations with exec comp as well, but the example above provides enough info to realize factors other than age come into the decision.
I always thought the workforce was dominated by old white men, but looking at these statistics- the breakdown by age- it’s astonishing. It’s a gerontocracy.
No wonder we fail to innovate and adapt. No wonder most initiatives to change the culture have failed miserably.
And what’s worse, after the lay-offs pass the age distribution will continue to be skewed.
I expect younger staff to be disproportionately affected while the last dinosaurs will cling on.
Yes, the age breakdown provided to those VIP-eligible was what I was looking at when I wrote my original comment. " Slightly more than 2000 US employees invited to retire. About 450 are aged 58 or 59."
252 staff aged 55 - Some must be have been already waffling between early retirement and sticking it out. VIP may motivate some to go ahead and pull the trigger? Say 20%? That's 50 volunteers.
513 staff aged 56/57 - Already decided against early retirement, for the most part. VIP provides little incentive. Maybe some annoyed/frustrated enough to just bail. Say 10%? That's 50 volunteers.
455 staff aged 58/59 - This is the VIP sweet spot to me. Historically low lump sum interest rates. Four months salary may be attractive if you had only planned on working another 12 months. Stress and workloads will only increase in 2021-2022. I would definitely take the VIP if I was say 58-1/2. Say 50%? That's 230 volunteers.
808 staff aged 60-75 - Either continuing to work because they enjoy it, have nothing else to do, or waiting to achieve 15 years service. VIP should have little to no impact on motivating this population. Similar to 55, maybe some were already thinking about retiring. and this is a good trigger to go ahead and do it. Say 15%? That's 120 volunteers.
That would be a total of 450 volunteers. Company accepts 95%. That's a reduction of 425. Leaving 1500 for involuntary.
Maybe I am wrong about the 60+ age group? Could it be significantly higher and drive another 200 retirements? I personally have trouble putting myself in their shoes. Obviously my estimates are biased by my own experiences, motivations, and retirement calculations. I would be interested to hear others' take on my logic.
replying to @pkf+17XH43Lo and to @ooc+17XH43Lo
If you are an RE, you have the data on who is RE (by law they have to report it to those in the program). There is a list of how many people are RE with a break-down of their ages. There are more people in the 55 on up bucket than the number they announced to cut...but about half are below 59 1/2. Which means 59 and less are not 100% vested in their pension...most of them won't go. Especially, those who are only 56-57. So, doubtful all REs will retire. Meaning about half HC reductions will be involuntary and half will be volunteering. Some companies like Global Projects and EMRE...I don't think it will be good. And, the NREs got stuff with no option. Can't retire and can't get a severance package...so what does that mean in the next ranking session? Not sure it is positive.
@aou
thanks for commenting that lump sum interest rates are corporate bond rates. This is so important for people contemplating the voluntary program to understand this, and further that Corporate bond rates are not fully coupled to the Fed Treasury rates.
I hope I can help inform further this element of the considerations for those whom are Retirement Eligible and are weighing whether interest rates may rise or fall further in the next 1-2 years.
Pasted below is the actual data for 30-yr, 10-yr Fed treasury interest rates, and comparing to average Corporate Bond segmented rates (where I calculated the average based on a nominal 30-yr life expectancy for an approximate 59 year old, just using simple lump sum weighted averages as close enough for estimating purposes).
The data is provided going back to January 2013. The five rows of data are showing date, 30-yr Fed, 10-yr fed, and average rate of the short, mid, and long term Corporate bond rates, and finally the "Delta" between the 30-yr Fed rate and the Average Rate of the Corporates bonds assuming 30-year life expectancy.
Sorry formatting is off, but you can maybe do a cut and past and Excel and replicate on your own if desired.
TWO IMPORTANT Points: The average "Delta" is 0.95% between Fed and 30-yr Fed rate; but 1-standard deviation is 0.22% depending on corporate bond and Wall Street financial reactions (or not) to signaling from the Federal reserve.
So while the Fed has signaled rates to remain flat out to 2022 due to Covid, in reality, Wall Street and the investment community will react further based on the news/political cycles.
So ... lets apply some statistics to this date provided below and assuming a "normal" distribution.
Assuming a normal distribution, there is ~67% likelihood that interest rates used for lump sum will not rise more than 0.22% for the lump sum calculation, and 95% likelihood that interest rates used for lump sum will not rise more than 0.44% (two standard deviations) if Federal reserve holds true to the word.
You can be the judge of how well you trust the Federal Reserve to keep their word or not.
I hope this is helpful for your own analysis, as this is the most important financial decision you will ever make, and it is hard to find data and facts without researching significantly on your own.
Date 30 yr Fed Trea 10 yr Fed Treas Corp Bond Segmented Avg Delta Corp Bond - 30 yr Fed
1-Sep-20 1.42% 0.68% 2.379% 0.959%
1-Aug-20 1.36% 0.65% 2.293% 0.933%
1-Jul-20 1.31% 0.62% 2.306% 0.996%
1-Jun-20 1.49% 0.73% 2.591% 1.101%
1-May-20 1.38% 0.67% 2.797% 1.417%
1-Apr-20 1.27% 0.66% 2.815% 1.545%
1-Mar-20 1.46% 0.87% 3.228% 1.768%
1-Feb-20 1.97% 1.50% 2.836% 0.866%
1-Jan-20 2.22% 1.76% 3.031% 0.811%
1-Dec-19 2.30% 1.86% 3.122% 0.822%
1-Nov-19 2.28% 1.81% 3.176% 0.896%
1-Oct-19 2.19% 1.71% 3.146% 0.956%
1-Sep-19 2.16% 1.70% 3.171% 1.011%
1-Aug-19 2.12% 1.63% 3.121% 1.001%
1-Jul-19 2.57% 2.06% 3.487% 0.917%
1-Jun-19 2.57% 2.07% 3.615% 1.045%
1-May-19 2.82% 2.39% 3.839% 1.019%
1-Apr-19 2.94% 2.53% 3.894% 0.954%
1-Mar-19 2.98% 2.57% 3.991% 1.011%
1-Feb-19 3.02% 2.68% 4.053% 1.033%
1-Jan-19 3.04% 2.71% 4.223% 1.183%
1-Dec-18 3.10% 2.83% 4.324% 1.224%
1-Nov-18 3.36% 3.12% 4.471% 1.111%
1-Oct-18 3.34% 3.15% 4.354% 1.014%
1-Sep-18 3.15% 3.00% 4.207% 1.057%
1-Aug-18 3.04% 2.89% 4.106% 1.066%
1-Jul-18 3.01% 2.89% 4.138% 1.128%
1-Jun-18 3.05% 2.91% 4.193% 1.143%
1-May-18 3.13% 2.98% 4.173% 1.043%
1-Apr-18 3.07% 2.87% 4.034% 0.964%
1-Mar-18 3.09% 2.84% 4.001% 0.911%
1-Feb-18 3.13% 2.86% 3.903% 0.773%
1-Jan-18 2.88% 2.58% 3.673% 0.793%
1-Dec-17 2.77% 2.40% 3.592% 0.822%
1-Nov-17 2.80% 2.35% 3.636% 0.836%
1-Oct-17 2.88% 2.36% 3.638% 0.758%
1-Sep-17 2.78% 2.20% 3.648% 0.868%
1-Aug-17 2.80% 2.21% 3.644% 0.844%
1-Jul-17 2.88% 2.32% 3.688% 0.808%
1-Jun-17 2.80% 2.19% 3.674% 0.874%
1-May-17 2.96% 2.30% 3.841% 0.881%
1-Apr-17 2.79% 2.18% 3.864% 1.074%
1-Mar-17 3.08% 2.48% 3.984% 0.904%
1-Feb-17 3.03% 2.42% 3.924% 0.894%
1-Jan-17 3.02% 2.43% 3.917% 0.897%
1-Dec-16 3.11% 2.49% 4.041% 0.931%
1-Nov-16 2.86% 2.14% 3.864% 1.004%
1-Oct-16 2.50% 1.76% 3.551% 1.051%
1-Sep-16 2.35% 1.63% 3.452% 1.102%
1-Aug-16 2.26% 1.56% 3.357% 1.097%
1-Jul-16 2.23% 1.50% 3.339% 1.109%
1-Jun-16 2.45% 1.64% 3.573% 1.123%
1-May-16 2.63% 1.81% 3.699% 1.069%
1-Apr-16 2.62% 1.81% 3.711% 1.091%
1-Mar-16 2.68% 1.89% 3.929% 1.249%
1-Feb-16 2.62% 1.78% 4.062% 1.442%
1-Jan-16 2.86% 2.09% 4.106% 1.246%
1-Dec-15 2.97% 2.24% 4.123% 1.153%
1-Nov-15 3.03% 2.26% 4.178% 1.148%
1-Oct-15 2.89% 2.07% 4.059% 1.169%
1-Sep-15 2.95% 2.17% 4.124% 1.174%
1-Aug-15 2.86% 2.17% 4.059% 1.199%
1-Jul-15 3.07% 2.32% 4.151% 1.081%
1-Jun-15 3.11% 2.36% 4.173% 1.063%
1-May-15 2.95% 2.20% 3.944% 0.994%
1-Apr-15 2.59% 1.93% 3.559% 0.969%
1-Mar-15 2.63% 2.04% 3.614% 0.984%
1-Feb-15 2.57% 1.98% 3.574% 1.004%
1-Jan-15 2.45% 1.88% 3.516% 1.066%
1-Dec-14 2.83% 2.21% 3.835% 1.005%
1-Nov-14 3.04% 2.33% 3.939% 0.899%
1-Oct-14 3.04% 2.30% 3.857% 0.817%
1-Sep-14 3.26% 2.53% 4.011% 0.751%
1-Aug-14 3.20% 2.42% 3.903% 0.703%
1-Jul-14 3.33% 2.54% 3.963% 0.633%
1-Jun-14 3.42% 2.60% 4.015% 0.595%
1-May-14 3.39% 2.56% 3.956% 0.566%
1-Apr-14 3.52% 2.71% 4.088% 0.568%
1-Mar-14 3.62% 2.72% 4.196% 0.576%
1-Feb-14 3.66% 2.71% 4.230% 0.570%
1-Jan-14 3.77% 2.86% 4.307% 0.537%
1-Dec-13 3.89% 2.90% 4.455% 0.565%
1-Nov-13 3.80% 2.72% 4.458% 0.658%
1-Oct-13 3.68% 2.62% 4.381% 0.701%
1-Sep-13 3.79% 2.81% 4.524% 0.734%
1-Aug-13 3.76% 2.74% 4.476% 0.716%
1-Jul-13 3.61% 2.58% 4.354% 0.744%
1-Jun-13 3.40% 2.30% 4.260% 0.860%
1-May-13 3.11% 1.93% 3.842% 0.732%
1-Apr-13 2.93% 1.76% 3.721% 0.791%
1-Mar-13 3.16% 1.96% 3.910% 0.750%
1-Feb-13 3.17% 1.98% 3.872% 0.702%
1-Jan-13 3.08% 1.91% 3.781% 0.701%
Xom is plagued by greed. People with 30-40 yrs careers with fat 401K and pension still holding onto payroll, bringing zero to the table and taking up space. We need forward thinking innovators, do us all a favor and retire!
We were told GP has approximately 200 voluntary eligible, 150 non eligible (52-54 years old), and 1600-1700 total USA employees. You can calculate the lay-off band from that. Gonna be nasty.
I think those that are retirement eligible (55+ Or 15+) will be offered positions or locations they won’t except, which will force them to “retire”
OP here. The Faq does CLEARLY state, in no uncertain terms, that 52+ are not considered for redundancy.
This applies only to the announced 2020 program. Do you really completely trust that we are done with separations at the end of 2020? If not, 55+ would clearly be fair game after they were offered a package and declined it. During the announcement meeting, my President clearly implied that 55+ should "carefully consider" application to the VIP program. Maybe I read too much into that? Hope I am wrong.
I know many 58+ who were planning to retire this year, but because of work from home and zero commute, they are planning to stay another year or two. I retired at 60 several years ago and the commute was my main reason for retirement. Oh well. I guess some young folks will be laid off instead.
Not worried about interest rate going up? Have you seen the way we are printing money?
@pkf why is this so hard for people? The Faq CLEARLY state, in no uncertain terms, that 52+ are not considered for redundancy.
Slightly more than 2000 US employees invited to retire. About 450 are aged 58 or 59. This is the only bucket I would expect a large percentage of volunteers. No consensus was ever reached on possibility of forced retirements with no package after this round of involuntary. Most people I have talked to think that 55+ are protected because they are "not included" in the involuntary program. I am not so sure about that. But it could be driving behavior towards not taking the package. Assuming a large number of 58/59ers take the package, my uneducated guesstimate would be 400 volunteers. Almost all applications for VIP will be accepted. So a decent dent in the 1900 total, but likely less than most people were hoping.
The rates are corporate bond rates, not the Fed set rates.
Not true. They can lower it to spur economic activity if the rebound isn quick.
With the vaccines coming, the interest rates will never be lower.
I personally find it highly unlikely that the interest rate will go up anytime in the next few years.
At least they could share with us the number who are eligible for the program. Then we would have a sense for how much the voluntary program could potentially reduce the number required to be involuntary.
The math behind this decision is very much situation dependent. If interest rates go up there will be a whole bunch of people who will wish they had retired as the lump sum amount will go down. Anyone who is eligible should do the math to see the potential impact. Who wants to work for another year or two only to find out their lump sum went down and they worked for free.