Demand will never go back to 2019 levels. Demand will decrease from 2019 levels going forward. Fact. Saying otherwise is just rolling rigged choice like our good old DW.
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During Covid antiquated thinking........you are correct. 9 months ago, incorrect. If you believe everything you hear on GS network you will be a sheep to his thinking and after he says it long enough you will believe it.
During Covid we are also allowing demonstrators to take over police stations and burn down towns and city’s.
If you think this is the new normal we (USA) will be in way worse shape in a very short period of time.
Dude.. Your view is very antiquated..
Please, jet fuel will save the company all while we figure out what to do with gasoline and diesel that the world doesn't want.
Most electric equipment doesn't need as much lubricants as ICE vehicles, there goes that market.. But planes will save us, right?
Nat gas flooding the market with power plants? Yeah, those really aren't being built out anymore either.
US electrical generation (2019) by category
36% natural gas
23% coal
20% nuclear
17% renewables if you include hydro at 6.6%
I understand battery technology but there is also something called conservation of energy if you remember your thermodynamic class back in the day.
Don’t forget all the other items that need petroleum to produce, lubricate, make colors, delivery all the junk stuff we buy at consumer marketplaces now. If we were living of the ages 50 yrs ago and people said all cars are electric you would have a great point but considering everything that comes into your house (even excluding transportation) requires O&G to manufacture. IO&G is a free marketplace just as many fields were shut in when prices dropped new fields will not be developed until price comes up which will in turn drive up the price of natural gas which in the past was a by product of Oil production.
Don’t get me started in banning all fracs in government controlled land. If this happens O&G will bounce faster then you can imagine. Saudi will restrict supply to the US like they did in the 80’s. Like I said most of Oil production is consumed by air travel which has basically stopped and I don’t think we will see hydrogen or electric planes anytime soon. Again it’s just my perspective and everyone has there own. Now I don’t think we will hav Oil at $100 /bbl until at least 3 years from now at the earliest and that could change to be more like 5 yrs but it will come back at some price point. Now will the supply be higher then 2019, I don’t know if I can speculate on that.
@2fuh+16SaWq3f, re: green thing: A LOT has changed since you last checked. That space is not static like O&G where all efficiencies have been drained years ago. There are multiple technology curves to climb, progress is being made and money is flowing. Suffice to say that the best mining shovels today are electric - torque - added bonus: you don't have to haul fuel in the middle of nowhere. ExxonMobil has renewable power in Permian because its lower cost - think of the rich irony in that. Hydrogen is the new solution for ships.. And look at the Tesla supercharger grid map - every 200 miles in the entire highway system, charge in under 30 min. It is hard to see from good ol'texas, but the rest if the world has already moved on from ICE. And we've been researching .... algae for the past 15 years.
2021 will s— for O&G, may s— a little or may s— a whole lot depending on what happens in Nov. If we keep shutting down schools and businesses eventually everything will come to a standstill.
As for the green thing. People want green energy but it’s a long ways off. Don’t forgot at the end of the day planes and ships use the majority of the product not Cars and Trucks. Try to wrap your head around big rigs running on batteries and how you would take you family on a cross country Vacation. We just aren’t there yet so I don’t see the demand shrinking that much as long as air travel comes back. Just my 2 cents.
For EM, yes. We will soon be rid of all the people trashing EM on here doing no real work collecting a paycheck.
For EM, no.
@1trv, 1msv here. I said "at the earliest". I agree with you that is likely 2019 was the peak, however a long career has taught me to be cautious: separate what we read, what we wish, and what actually happens. The question was will 2021 be better than 2020, and my answer was no, with high confidence. Beyond that, we'll see where COVID takes the world.
@1msv+16SaWq3f you think demand will surpass '19 levels? What world are you looking at because the vast majority of the world is going away from oil.
No. Demand will not get back to 2019 levels until late 2021 at the earliest. Until then, "the beatings will continue until morale improves"
Worse for o&g
Yes. Guaranteed