I assume that SPEEA number covers the whole SPEEA body (Puget Sound, Portland, part of Utah)? At one point, there's 23k members, and I believe it's down to 18-20k now? So that's about 7%-8% of the whole body takes the VLO? if the Cut for SPEEA (White collar, Puget Sound area, BCA, which would be the deepest cut) is 20%, which is twice as much as the average for round one, there's still about 12% gap. If none of the VLO comes from R3, and if R3 is 18% of the population, then sounds like 1/3 of the R3 will survive the Round one, and all R2 and R1 will survive. The next question is, when would be round 2, when round 2 comes, there likely will be no VLO offer. With no buffer, when Round 2 comes, those R3 left will likely be all gone, and will cut into some of the R2's.