Since we have all had at least 24 hours to digest this news, what are your honest thoughts about this situation? Do you this it’s a precursor to a lay-off ? What will we be going back to (if) we go back in July?
21 replies (most recent on top)
Nothing will change for those coming back in July. Sabre mgmt style is the same. Will always be the same. If you can find another gig in 60 days, why would you go back to this mess? I've got a couple of interviews already, If i get an offer I'm certainly not going back.
I actually want to work somewhere where i'll make a difference and I'll actually will have a leadership chain that isn't all about themselves. I choose to spend my time elsewhere and actually have fun at work. Have a leadership team that believes in me and what we are doing as a team. forget the id–ts
Sabre will diversify becoming less dependent on the travel industry, but it's not likely the company will turn its back on its root.
Longer Term: Airliners will be retrofitted with UV-C air processors and that will help make air travel safer. It won't happen overnight but it won't take years, either.
Shorter Term: Passengers (air, train, subway, etc) will be required to wear N95/+ masks. In fact, it's likely there will be an "air travel passport" —so to speak— and you'll be required to have a current "physical" as part of your health record. Prior to boarding, passengers may need to undergo a finger-stick blood test (IgM, IgG).
Air travel will be back to traditional capacities within 6 months.
A much lighter Sabre survives as a private or public concern.
Watch.
I heard through a reliable source (friend of someone in C-level authority) that UX in Southlake is going to be drastically reduced/furloughed for good.
Baseline taxes and debt service are far higher than they were in 1919.
Taxes will be raised further to pay for all this.
The future is going to be brutal for the former middle class.
I am not am employee or vendor of have any relation with this industry or company. My advice is to go Wiki the attendance of the 1919 World Series. People forget fast.
Very politely disagree with the chance of recovery in the previous post.
At a minimum already have tremendous damage to one quarter of this year's economy.
New normal will be below 2019 levels for as far as the eye can see.
Sabre executive management may be experiencing euphoria regarding labor savings.
Other companies may individually feel the same way.
But when the customer's of many companies have their pay cut or eliminated, that will impact overall corporate earnings.
@1klr+14Dm7yWi:
"The only hope for survival of Sabre is to use the IT workforce for new projects, outside of travel industry,"
- g. where? At 7-Eleven?
a couple of notes
- people have what i call a "30 minute memory". They forget pretty quickly.
- Consumer and Retail.
people need to feel safe again. As localities reopen this will foster that in those localities. thus drive the spend at a local level. This will graduate to a state level of warm fuzzys and instate travel will resume. You will then start to see Domestic Consumer Travel pick up as well between the areas that arent news driven. NY may take some time. Times Square may take 3 months or so.
- Biz travel, Cronas 15 minutes of fame will start to die down as consumer confidence builds from bullet 2. Then domestic biz spending and planning will start to plan and resume again. That takes a little while, Event planning takes months. I bet the biz spend will be behind the consumer confidence spend by a quarter. That answers Domestic.
International will depend on other countries and their reactions. (a bit hard to predict).
Sabre wise. Lots of change. exec mgmt did a lot of what they did because of greed. This companys. With 1.1 billion in the bank, I'm guessing they saved roughly 20-30 million a month on payroll by doing the furlough. They didnt have to do it. We are actually in a very healthy financial position. The k–lers of our finances have to do with piss poor planning at the c-level with Fairlogix AND the google deal. The staffing was fine.
but i expect the staffing to continue to vastly decline in dfw. until this c-level team is removed.
- You will never be an admired or respected C-level person unless you learn you have to take care of your people above ALL ELSE.
That takes a true leader and thats what makes companies like SouthWest such a special place. Sabre is more like the 1980's GE. Whom had one of the worst CEO's ever.
“The only hope for survival of Sabre is to use the IT workforce for new projects, outside of travel industry,outsourcing maybe? You can't do money on dying market...“
That might have worked if they had run with that early enough,
I think at this point the focus of management needs to be to take out as much cash as possible as retention bonuses.
The only hope for survival of Sabre is to use the IT workforce for new projects, outside of travel industry,outsourcing maybe? You can't do money on dying market...
In all honesty, my views also echo what some people have mentioned.
Even if the virus does die down, there will not be a widescale reopening of borders for fear of a second or third wave.
Even so, the US market is expected to suffer the most and the longest, and Sabre does have a large portion of its business out of the US. Note that there was not much concern when the virus started in APAC, everything was hunky dory and only when s__t started hitting the fan in mid Mar did Sabre actually start taking some action. So with the US market being one of the last few to recover, do expect revenue to be depressed for a longer period of time. And all this doesnt account for the lower capacity from airlines we are likely to see over the next few years.
My guess is the furlough will be extended, and subsequently some may get called back, but majority will be sent packing, so it would be best to look out for our own careers right now and look for whatever opportunities there are out there, unless you are sure you will have a job at Sabre at the end of this.
Situation is clearly extremely grim to me.
Should executive management demand retention bonuses to stay on, that will hopefully make it clear to others.
I was not furloughed, but looking at company condition - I plan to find a better place. Current project management is pure chaos. No new sources of income are on the way. I will quit before next furlough/layoff tranche... I don't want to be the one turning the lights off...
Everything depends on the market recovery. IMO not much will change within next 2 months and personally I'm not expecting that people will come back in July. Most folks will start to look something new because they will have to due to $$$ reason or they share my point of view. I don't want to hurt anyone's feelings and I hope that I'm wrong but I think it is naive to believe that furlough employees will be back in July. Some of then yes but most of them not. Additionally, market will change and company will have adjust to the changes.
Sabre yearly revenue is around 3-7%, Travel industry (IATA) loss estimation is: in Q2 82%, Q3 56%, Q4 33%. Some simple calculation will tell you furlough is just the beginning. I personally expect more or extended furloughs and if in 2 months number of bookings won't start to rise - the worst is coming. Fully recover will take 2-3 years. This is optimistic scenario.
For the Krk site, if they won't call us back within 2 months, then not many of us will be still waiting to be called back later. There is plenty of companies in Krk actively recruiting, some of them are looking for experienced staff for months and they should thank Sabre for such gift. Personally I think that half may leave regardless of the furlough duration. It's a pity because many skilled people will walk away and will take years to rebuild trust, PR and position on the Krk market.
I am comfortable predicting that severance formula will be cut.
Once that happens, that should end any delusion of this being a furlough not a lay-off.
Follow the money. Sabre's recovery will follow airlines' recovery. If bookings come back and stay at 20% of what they were YOY, then Sabre size must be 20% of what it was last year. Which means 33% cut is not enough – there will be even more cuts. July 2020 is too soon for recovery. In 2021, maybe it will grow to 30% of what it was in 2019. KRK and MVD will be called back before DFW. U.S. furlough will be extended once or twice. A handful from U.S. will return to work, but most will not be coming back. They will find other jobs and be replaced by heads in low-cost centers. (Recall the 2019 layoffs which affected only DFW.). If anyone waits the full 6(?) months for extended furlough to expire, they will get severance, but most won't wait.
If they can get by without us for 2 months, then they do not need us.
A lot of people are buying into it being a furlough not a lay-off though.
To swq. ‘Sabre will be better with a trimmed work force’. Were you one of the ones who worked their A$$ off for the company only to be furloughed? You are correct about one thing, we all will be looking. I figure with my skills and work ethic something will come along.
My honest thoughts are it will be 50/50. Most wont hold out, they will be looking now. So when it’s time to bring everyone back, I think a lot will not come back because they have found something else. And then the remaining, most roles will be available but some may not be. In that case, if your role is still there then yes. If it’s not, then no.
Personally, and this is sad to say, Sabre will be a better company with a trimmed work force. I think it will look drastically different but will be exciting... as soon as covid goes away.