OK - After today's closure announcement in addition to the ones in process make it appear that the K-Mart store count will be in the low 500's by November and perhaps (if another quiet round of closings hit) below 500. And while the format itself showed a small profit in the last quarter (when you add in asset sales) the format as a going concern will likely cease in 2018. This is my prediction of what will happen:
1) The bulk of the remaining stores remain in three regions in the country:
-California (and to a lesser extent the neighboring states of Arizona, Nevada, Oregon and Washington)
-East Coast (Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Mass)
&
-Industrial Midwest (Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Kentucky)
If the chain survives in some future form I would look for these three regions to be where it is. Of course the closing announcements have hit some of these areas pretty hard. Any viable company owned or long term leases in these regions will be converted to cash until the remainder stores in these regions can be sold to another chain (Dollar Store format perhaps) or spun off into its own separate company. An IPO would bring it needed cash and allow for new life as the New Super KMart Dollar Concept.
-Perhaps the group of stores in Florida, South Carolina and North Carolina are big enough to be viable but that is iffy.
2- Stores in the rest of the country will be closed and liquidated. The distribution cost is too high when the stores are spread that thin, Eventually SHLD management will finally give up the stature that comes with being a "National Chain" and make the right decision. Some key stores that are isolated from other competition may get a new life under a new brand but that may be just a few. Other properties will be sold or reconfigured as soon as practical.
3- Look for SHLD to actively seek a buyer for Puerto Rico, The Virgin Islands and Guam.
SHLD will never file bankruptcy. It appears as if the store closing sales work well and are buying them enough time.